Mozambique: Real tests lie ahead for new President

Posted by on Nov 12th, 2014 and filed under Allgemein, Breaking News, Markets. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

On 15 October, the ruling party (FRELIMO), in power since independence, won the presidential and legislative elections, clouded by allegations by international observers of vote rigging and manipulation.

FRELIMO’s traditional opponent since civil war, RENAMO, nevertheless managed to increase its number of seats in parliament and called for dialogue instead of violence as a reaction to the disputed result. The newly elected President Nyusi gained 56.8% of the vote despite growing dissatisfaction with the ruling party in society at large, and RENAMO’s presidential candidate won 36.8%.

The result for RENAMO is quite rewarding notwithstanding their two-year retreat from the political scene and their campaign of small-scale armed attacks in central Mozambique that ended with the September peace agreement. The MDM (Democratic Movement of Mozambique) fared rather poorly except in urban areas.

Impact on country risk

Should FRELIMO refuse talks with RENAMO in the cabinet formation, violent attacks will become more likely. However, RENAMO does not have the capacity to launch a large-scale rebellion.

The threat of maintaining violence could deter tourist and investor confidence, thereby obstructing developments in the nascent natural gas industry and associated government revenues. The stakes for holding power are high with natural resource wealth seeping in and huge offshore gas fields coming on stream in the next five years.

Henceforth, rifts inside FRELIMO are arising between ‘reformers’ and ‘enrichers’, while RENAMO will push for a greater share of wealth. Mozambique could become a textbook case of the ‘natural resource curse’ if the upcoming economic developments do not take place in a transparent manner and moreover result in improved livelihoods of the population.

Indeed, real tests lie ahead for the new president.

Country risk analyst, Louise Van Cauwenbergh , Credendo Group

Disclaimer: Credendo Group has used its best endeavours to ensure that all the information, data, documentation and other material in this report are accurate and complete. Credendo Group accepts no liability for errors or omissions. The views expressed herein are the author’s personal views and are not intended to reflect the views of Credendo Group. Credendo Group will not be liable for claims or losses of any nature arising directly or indirectly from use of the information, data, documentation or other material from this report. The texts and illustrations can be printed for private use; distribution is permitted only after authorisation by Credendo Group. Quotations are permitted provided that reference is made to the valid source. Reproductions are permitted provided that reference is made to the valid source, unless for commercial aims, in which case reproduction, even with source indication, is not permitted.


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