Ghana: Opposition leader elected president

Posted by on Jan 28th, 2017 and filed under Allgemein, Breaking News, Markets. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

Event

Opposition leader Nana Akufo-Addo of the New Patriotic Party (NPP) won rather convincingly from incumbent President Mahama of the National Democratic Congress (NDC) in the December 2016 elections and even attained a parliamentary majority.

In line with Ghana’s earlier power transfers, the transition and government formation is expected to be peaceful. The poor economic performance of the country, falling living standards and some high-profile corruption scandals drove voters towards the opposition.

High levels of voter bribery (on both sides) and the continued patron-client underpinnings of Ghana’s democracy pressurise the new government to swiftly reward its supporters and materialise major campaign promises in order not to lose popular support.

Impact on country risk

For now, the structural reforms implementation under the three-year IMF support programme remains broadly on track and has been vital for evading a full-fledged fiscal crisis. In theory, there are few fundamental policy differences between the two major parties.

However, certain NPP campaign promises like building an industrial factory in every district or creating a development fund for every constituency are too costly for the budget, while forced industrialisation proved inefficient in the past.

Therefore, a significant risk would be for the new administration to re-engage in such loose fiscal spending, driven by election promises and leading to tensions with the IMF or even suspension of support funds.

Despite gradual progress and growth projections reaching an estimated 7% and 8% in 2017 and 2018 respectively, public finances continue to be a major challenge and the roll-over risk of public debt remains significant given that a large share of domestic public debt consists in short-term debt.

Moreover, the cedi is re-exposed to capital outflows and depreciation in the aftermath of the US election.

Credendo Group accepts no liability for errors or omissions. The views expressed herein are the author’s personal views and are not intended to reflect the views of Credendo Group. Credendo Group will not be liable for claims or losses of any nature arising directly or indirectly from use of the information, data, documentation or other material from this report. The texts and  illustrations can be printed for private use; distribution is permitted only after authorisation by Credendo Group. Quotations are permitted provided that reference is made to the valid source. Reproductions are permitted provided that reference is made to the valid source, unless for commercial aims, in which case reproduction, even with source indication, is not permitted.

Louise Van Cauwenbergh – Credendo Group


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