Algeria: Bouteflika embarks fourth term but uncertainty about succession continues

Posted by on Mai 9th, 2014 and filed under Allgemein, Breaking News, Markets. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

Event

On 17 April, President Abdelaziz Bouteflika was easily re-elected for a fourth term, having won more than 80% of the votes.

With six opposition parties boycotting the vote, the turnout was 51.7%, sharply down from the 75% registered in the 2009 presidential elections. President Bouteflika is 77 years old and visibly in poor health after having suffered a stroke in April last year.

His condition had caused speculation in the run-up to the elections that the time had come for the ruling regime to put forward a new head of state or nominate a vice president. This did not happen, indicating that the Algerian political establishment has yet to reach a consensus on a new leader.

Impact on country risk

President Bouteflika’s re-election indicates that policy continuity can be expected in the short term. Moreover, the country’s political risk classification is supported by its strong external liquidity and low indebtedness.

However, as there is no clear successor, uncertainty about the upcoming post-Bouteflika era continues. The low turnout indicates increasing public frustration with the political process, which in turn raises questions about the sustainability of political stability.

Uncertainty is likely to make attracting (foreign) investment more challenging, particularly in the hydrocarbon sector, on which the country remains very dependent. The sector has seen its production decline since 2010, while domestic energy consumption is growing.

As a result, hydrocarbon exports are falling. This is projected to result in a current account deficit as from next year, down from a current account surplus of more than 20% of GDP in 2008.

Disclaimer: Credendo Group has used its best endeavours to ensure that all the information, data, documentation and other material (copy and images) in this report are accurate and

complete. Credendo Group accepts no liability for errors or omissions. The views expressed herein are the author’s personal views and are not intended to reflect the views of Credendo Group. Credendo Group will not be liable for claims or losses of any nature arising directly or indirectly from use of the information, data, documentation or other material from this report. The texts and illustrations can be printed for private use; distribution is permitted only after authorisation by Credendo Group. Quotations are permitted provided that reference is made to the valid source. Reproductions are permitted provided that reference is made to the valid source, unless for commercial aims, in which case reproduction, even with source indication, is not permitted.

Daan Rowies, Credendo Group


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